Government support for investment in energy efficiency and the green transition is therefore paramount. First Brexit, then Bregret. An additional risk is that prevailing uncertainty, coupled with tightening financial conditions, might reduce investment in climate mitigation and adaptation. I think it would be quite extraordinary if it turned out that such a thing had happened. Economic crises are happening more often. Technology also tends to make markets more concentrated, and limited diffusion of new technology across firms can further erode workers bargaining power. Europe will have to consider mining and processing rare earths domestically if it wants to combine its quest for strategic autonomy with the green transition. The broadening of these controls was driven in part by American corporates eager to receive government subsidies and labour unions welcoming new domestic manufacturing plants. Winner of the Prospect 2015 Think Tank of the Year Award - UK International Affairs You must have JavaScript enabled to use this form. Produced by Helmi PillaiMusic by Edward Hipkins, In this weeks episode of the Centre for European Reform podcast Helmi Pillai interviews John Springford about his most recent cost of Brexit analysis. It is a forum for people with ideas from Britain and across the continent to discuss the many . Failed Fact Checks: None in the Last 5 years. I am truly astonished at the quality and quantity of its output in light of its relatively modest budget. Europe needs a new strategy. But this is mainly due to the revenues generated by high energy prices and import compression. The Center for European Policy Analysis is currently pending or under review. As a result, the West has discovered that value chains are often far more complex and involve more interdependencies than they had expected. Preliminary Assessment: High Credibility However, while the pace of globalisation is slowing, deglobalisation has not occurred to any great extent. He is a member of the international advisory boards of the Moscow School of Civic Education, the Turkish think tank EDAM and the French think tank Terra Nova. The impact of new technologies on labour markets is less clear-cut than ageing. Some discussants at Ditchley argued that made it inevitable that central bankers would; continue to raise interest rates and start quantitative tightening. According to which of the two effects prevails there will be varying consequences for job creation, workers welfare and wage inequality. Ouimais ce nest pas une raison pour le faire, The impact of the war in Ukraine: Annual report 2022. We are not affiliated with any government, political party or European institution. These fields, like other digital markets, are likely to be dominated by one or two players who can build scale quickly. Another risk specific to the eurozone is the stability of public finances as government borrowing costs increase. CER/Clifford Chance hybrid discussion on 'Industrial policy and the future of state aid', The Protocol deal is a win for Sunak and the EU, Ditchley conference report: Macroeconomics in a time of pandemic and war. In November, the CER held its annual economics conference on the macroeconomic consequences of the pandemic and Putins invasion of Ukraine. Increasing use of sanctions is not necessarily disrupting established global financial flows the current account surpluses accumulated in China, Saudi Arabia and Russia still finance spending by the US, the EU and India but it is making these flows more complex and opaque. All plans give access to our growing exclusive content! John also discusses the methodology behind his findings and responds to criticisms of his analysis. Renewable energy investment, so vital to bring down energy prices, is extremely sensitive to higher interest rates because it entails a high upfront capital cost followed by a long, drawn-out, period of pay-offs in the form of cheap energy. The CER won the think-tank of the year award at the Prospect Think Tank Awards 2018. I find that the CER has the sources and sense of perspective that few others have. Some discussants felt that governments would need to push for diversification, which would be too limited if it were led by the private sector. But it increasingly looks like Europe can manage without Russian gas. He works on EU foreign and defence policy, Russia, China, the euro and global governance. We also think that the EU should take on more responsibilities globally, on issues ranging from climate change to security. The decoupling of the Russian-European energy relationship has also reverberated elsewhere in the world. Elisabetta Cornago, senior research fellow, explains how the war has affected energy policy. Furthermore, the drivers of labour market tightness differ in the US and in Europe: for example, one participant noted it cannot be ruled out that the US is facing a one-off wage increase in sectors where workers were simply paidtoo little. Poorly designed price controls encouraged people to consume energy; it would be better to target support on poorer households, preferably in the form of cash transfers rather than price interventions. Bruegel Annual Meetings 2016, 6-7 September. Energy price controls meant that most energy producers did not collapse skyrocketing wholesale prices and longer-term consumer price contracts were a recipe for financial stress but meant that energy supply and consumption did not adjust quickly. "The Centre for European Reform, by far the best of all EU think-tanks in London"The Guardian, "A think-tank that manages to be both Atlanticist and Europhile" The Economist, "A think-tank with an increasingly influential role in the shaping of official policy" Financial Times, "Like many people I am bombarded with information on a daily, basis about Europe. The Centre for European Reform is an award winning independent think-tank devoted to making the EU work better, and strengthening its role in the world. Automation has replaced certain middle- and low-skilled jobs, while creating new ones. The EU is doing enough to prevent supply stoppages this winter and next liquefied natural gas (LNG), renewables and coal are coming online, and together with reduced energy consumption, that means Europe can do without Russian gas entirely. The study sought to assess the role of smallholder farming in crop productivity and market access . How will Europe cope without Russian gas? There were different views on the right course of action for central banks. There was broad agreement that the EU should have a bigger fiscal capacity. Does the Windsor deal herald warmer ties between Britain and the EU? Most of our events are by invitation only and off the record, to ensure a high level of debate. 59,60 When publication bias is present, measures of treatment effect may be upwardly biased. The CER playsa unique role, undertaking thinking on areascovered by no one else; this knowledge helpssupport the CBIs work representing UK businesseson national and international issues.Carolyn Fairbairn, CBI director-general, At a moment when tempers are risingdangerously and the European Union finds itselfat the heart of the national slanging match, theCER is one think-tank that is providing cogencyand clarity amid all the shouting it will beneeded more than ever in the coming years,whatever the outcome of Brexit.Peter Foster, Europe Editor, The Telegraph, Publications, research projects, news & events. The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Loose fiscal policy and energy price controls would prevent household consumption from cratering and give people time to invest in energy efficiency. One area of concern is financial stability: this was evident in the UK when former prime minister Liz Truss budget triggered a bond market sell-off and destabilised UK pension funds. Asked whether he could name a single civil service forecast that had ever been accurate, Mr Baker said: They are always wrong and wrong for good reasonsI look forward to the day when we continue to prove economists wrong when they make horror story predictions. One risk to this scenario is a re-opening of Chinas economy, which could imply very high Chinese demand for global LNG. 27 February 2023. The Impact of Climate Change on u.S. Subnational economies, Adam Kamins, Moody's Analytics. The CER's annual report starts with an essay on how the war in Ukraine is changing Europe. While the Federal Reserve can put the brakes on an economy that is coming out of a position of strength, the trade-offs for the ECB are much starker. For some participants, this means that governments and central banks should do much more to use their balance sheets to reduce the cost of capital for green investment. Governments are right to smooth out the shock of higher energy prices by subsidising energy in the short term, in order to allow households and businesses to adjust and prevent poverty. Copyright is held by the Centre for European Reform. Are we entering a new world of higher inflation and interest rates, or should we expect a return to the macroeconomics of the 2010s? European Policy Centre. You may not copy, reproduce, republish or circulate in any way the content from this publication except for your own personal and non-commercial use.Any other use requires the prior written permission of the Centre for European Reform. Mr Baker said the BuzzFeed article was a selective interpretation of a preliminary analysis, and an attempt to undermine our exit from the European Union. His biography of Commission President Jacques Delors (Delors: Inside the House that Jacques Built) was published by Nicolas Brealey in 1994 and he is the author of many CER publications. Any other use requires the prior written permission of the Centre for European Reform. A car plant can be sold off, while the value of knowledge is harder to assess. The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Charles Grant is Director of the Centre for European Reform, which he helped found in 1996. Olesya, Richard and Ian agreed that Britain could be providing military support more effectively and that there should be no impunity for Russian war criminals.Produced by Helmi Pillai and Octavia HughesMusic by Edward Hipkins, Ask CER - Episode 8: Inflation Reduction Act, Qatargate and Iran, In this weeks episode of the Centre for European Reform podcast, we answer questions you have sent to us. He is a member of the council of the Ditchley Foundation, and chairman of the foundation's programme committee. (adsbygoogle = window.adsbygoogle || []).push({}); Ad-Free Login In the medium term, Covid may accelerate the globalisation of services trade, by proving that more services can be delivered remotely. For example, there is no Western consensus on whether the production of active pharmaceutical ingredients or smartphones is strategically important. Nick Butler, Heather Grabbe, David Miliband. Although Europe has prevented energy shortages, prices will probably remain higher than pre-war levels for the foreseeable future, posing a fundamental challenge to European competitiveness. The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Session 1: How should monetary policy respond to shocks to supply? Despite its rhetoric, the new government in Rome has so far pursued a very conservative fiscal policy and has shown no sign of changing that prudent course. For his part, Putin has been withholding gas supplies in order to damage Europes economy. We are not affiliated with any government, political party or European institution. Daily Source Bias Check: Laredo Morning Times, The Latest Fact Checks curated by Media Bias Fact Check 03/01/2023, Daily Source Bias Check: Lozier Institute, The Latest Fact Checks curated by Media Bias Fact Check 02/28/2023, Daily Source Bias Check: Joint Center for Political and Economic Studies. But disadvantaging Americas cloud giants will do Europe more harm than good. Will the ECB be ultimately forced to choose between curbing inflation and compressing spreads, and is the Transmission Protection instrument a recipe for moral hazard? There was broad consensus at the conference that the pace of globalisation has slowed markedly. Thanks, INSIDE BRIEFING with Institute for Government. Ditchley conference report: Macroeconomics in a time of pandemic and war John Springford, Elisabetta Cornago, Zach Meyers, Sander Tordoir 24 February 2023 What are the reasons for the differences in core inflation between continental Europe and the UK and the US, and should their monetary policies differ? The role of government was to distribute the costs of higher energy prices fairly and cut consumption of imported energy. We also think that the EU should take on more responsibilities globally, on issues ranging from climate change to security. This apparently showed that the economic benefits of the UK forging FTAs with third countries outside the EU were significantly less than the economic costs of leaving the customs union, he said. Yet one participant pointed out that governments responses to Covid and the energy crisis had been innovative in that they had sought to preserve the supply side of the economy. In 2014, CER director Charles Grant was one of Bloomberg Newss 50 Most Influential list. If Turkey is willing to ratify Finlands NATO membership, there is little reason for Helsinki to wait for Stockholm. 59 Thus, our estimates of the efficacy of sibutramine at 16 . They often publish factual information that utilizes loaded words (wording that attempts to influence an audience by appeals to emotion or stereotypes) to favor liberal causes. Population ageing in Europe and China means the growth of the labour force in these places will soon go into reverse, putting upward pressure on inflation and interest rates. The CER won the best foreign affairs think-tank at the Prospect Think Tank Awards 2020. Apart from Russia, Europe is a resource-poor continent. At the European level, the REPowerEU program is a good start, but further instruments are needed. Most participants agreed that labour scarcity was unlikely to change Europeans antipathy towards immigration quickly. After years playing by the legal book, the EU is now using its purse strings to curb democratic backsliding in Poland and Hungary. Copyright is held by the Centre for European Reform. All rights reserved. And if national governments did not stick to the plans, there would be enforcement from the centre, but the member-states would have more control over the process. In November, the CER held its annual economics conference on the macroeconomic consequences of the pandemic and Putins invasion of Ukraine. Media Type: Organization/Foundation Investment in the intangible economy is harder than in physical capital, because it is difficult to offer an intangible investment as a security for borrowing. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. The picture in the euro area looks different, as it is much more exposed to the Russian war in Ukraine. You may not copy, reproduce, republish or circulate in any way the content from this publication except for your own personal and non-commercial use. Russia is highly dependent on revenues from energy exports. It can either help to contain inflation by lowering inflation expectations and moderating wage demands, or add fuel to the fire by further stimulating demand, especially where ill-designed policies subsidise energy consumption instead of encouraging energy savings. Another is the shift from a unipolar to a multipolar international order, which means that the US is more eager to focus on its relative advantages over other powers, rather than absolute gains for the global economy. In 2004 he became a chevalier of Frances Ordre Nationale du Mrite, and in 2013 a Companion of St Michael and St George (CMG) "for services to European and wider international policy-making". A complete flexibility of energy use, however, is more difficult to achieve for households. Stream Centre for European Reform music | Listen to songs, albums, playlists for free on SoundCloud Limited Time Offer: Get 50% off the first year of our best annual plan for artists with unlimited uploads, releases, and insights. They have always been clear,precise, technically sound and well informed. The CER won best UK international affairs think-tank at the Prospect Think Tank Awards 2017. Some participants did not consider this a realistic assessment, however, because, despite American gas exporters asking Europeans to sign very long-term contracts, European buyers have been hesitant to do so. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. Efforts to revive the 2015 Iran nuclear deal have stalled and Tehran is closer than ever to having nuclear weapons. These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation. Does the 2020-22 period herald a pivot towards a more activist state, with more redistribution, public investment and interventions in labour markets? For example, one discussant noted that US tariffs had less impact on trade with China than many analysts had expected. For example, the Wests initially targeted sanctions against Russia have become ever-broader. For Ad-Free Subscriptions go here: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/membership-account/membership-levels/, Terms and Conditions Washington is now focused on protecting its leadership in key sectors and hobbling its competitors. As we review CEPA please rate their bias. The new Northern Ireland deal gives it hope, Brexit: UK immigration system found to contribute to labour shortages, Ukraine war: Europe has turned a crisis into an opportunity, and its better off for it. The CER aims to promote an open, outward-looking and effective European Union. Will we see increased trade and economic (re)integration within the West? Restrictive urban planning is a particular problem, because it keeps clusters of businesses and cities small, making the sharing of knowledge harder. Since Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine a year ago, economic sanctions have been at the forefront of EU policy making. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. Yet this area, too, has been strongly influenced by labour politics. We regard European integration as largely beneficial but recognise that in many respects the Union does not work well. Texas Legislative Issues 2023 Energy, Rene Cross and Mark Jones, Hobby School of Public Affairs, University of Houston. Clara Marina ODonnell fellow Helmi Pillai speaks to the head of our Brussels office Camino Mortera-Martinez and senior fellows Zach Meyers and Luigi Scazzieri. In the context of this research, agrivoltaics is a technological evolution of solar. How can Europe avoid locking in temporary solutions such as switching from gas to coal, or from piped to shipped gas? The conclusions of our research and seminars are reflected in our publications, as well as in the private papers and briefings that senior officials, ministers and commissioners ask us to provide. Russia has managed to redirect more fungible oil exports towards other non-Western buyers, but offsetting the loss in gas exports to Europe is more challenging, as most of it is transported by pipelines. At the time I considered it implausible because my direct experience is that civil servants are extraordinarily careful to uphold the impartiality of the civil service, he added. Where decoupling is occurring, in some cases such as the UK leaving the EUs single market it encompasses many sectors of the economy at the same time. Session 4: What are the economic consequences of energy independence from Russia? One view was that fiscal policy should tighten as interest rates rose, as monetary policy had done; but fiscal and monetary policy were pulling in opposite directions. The price of imported energy had risen enormously thanks to Putins invasion of Ukraine. The conclusions of our research and seminars are reflected in our publications, as well as in the private papers and briefings that senior officials, ministers and commissioners ask us to provide. Ad-Free Sign up The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. Mr Baker also hit out at the work of civil servants on Tuesday during an Urgent Question on the analysis leaked to BuzzFeed this week, which suggested the hit to the UK economy from Brexit could vary from 2 per cent to 8 per cent, with the impact deepening as the UK set itself further apart from the EU. Social security support for the unemployed is not much more generous than when former prime minister Margaret Thatcher left office in 1990. On the eve of the pandemic, unemployment had reached record lows in many European countries, while wage growth and inflation had been modest. A joint report by the UK in a Changing Europe and the Centre for European Reform think tanks found the ending of free movement is contributing significantly to current labour shortages. Covid was sui generis, in that NGEU provided transfers between member-states, and that is unlikely to be repeated. Brexit and the Australia deal is bad for British farming so why didn't any Ministers intervene? A Brussels-based think-tank and lobby operation which was established originally as the privately owned lobby firms: Bemont European Community Law Office, and Belmont European Policy Centre. Charles Grant, director of the Centre for European Reform said in a statement on Thursday that he recalled discussing Treasury research into Brexit with minister Steve Baker. In this Centre for European Reform podcast, head of our Brussels office, Camino Mortera-Martinez, speaks to our director, Charles Grant, about the potential shape of this new European organisation, the purpose it would serve, and which countries might be . The European economy has adjusted to energy scarcity better than many expected in the summer of 2022. Officials, on the other hand, pointed out that history told us that the only way to generate significant additional revenue was to raise tax rates on labour and corporate income, and on expenditure. The growing use of subsidies an issue which is not effectively disciplined by international trade law remains an area ripe for co-operation. We did not find evidence of publication bias at other treatment durations; however, the numbers of trials in these analyses were small, and we may have lacked power to detect significant bias. The report then highlights some of the CER's most important publications and events from 2022. Winner of the Prospect 2015 Think Tank of the Year Award - UK International Affairs. BARCELONA, March 1 Netflix co-chief Greg Peters has dismissed a call by European network operators for a levy on major online services, reported German Press Agency. Electric vehicles and batteries are also sectors that the EU and US are targeting, for example in Americas Inflation Reduction Act. Desde otros centros de investigacin, como el Centre for European Reform (CER), unthink tankeuropesta y prximo desde sus orgenes al laborismo britnico, y el UK in Changing Europe, se hacen eco de una reduccin de 330.000 trabajadores -460.000 de origen europeo menos, frente a los 130.000 de otras nacionalidades que se ha sumado al mercado de trabajo- desde la firma del divorcio. If deglobalisation materialised it would lead to less efficient markets and drive up prices. EU gas consumption has fallen over 16 per cent year-on-year, greatly outperforming expectations. The Centre for European Reform (CER) is a London-based think tank that focuses on matters of European integration. Others at the table, however, outlined factors that made such an outcome unlikely. We regard European integration as largely beneficial but recognise that in many respects the Union does not work well. The market for US treasury bonds, a key pillar of the global financial system, has also suffered from bouts of illiquidity. The statement came after an exchange in the House of Commons in which arch Eurosceptic MP Jacob Rees-Mogg asked Mr Baker to confirm whether he had heard from the CER that the Treasury has deliberately developed a model to show that all options other than staying in the customs union were bad and that officials intended to use this to influence policy - a move that would breach the impartiality demanded and expected from the civil service. We are pro-European but not uncritical. The CER has the breadth of expertise to shine impartial, but searching, light on a range of topics including trade, migration, the institutions and diplomatic relations.Catherine Barnard, Professor of EU Law & Employment Law, University of Cambridge, The CERs work has more depth and moredetail than even the best journalism; it is morecurrent and more accessible than the bestacademic writing; it covers all the politicalangles, and has great expertise in economics andmarkets. A full cessation of Russian gas deliveries to Europe by the summer of 2023 is a realistic prospect. Not all factories run 24 hours a day: harnessing their flexibility in energy consumption would be helpful. Its second-round effects, with wages rising to compensate for the cost of living, mean the ECB will continue to overshoot its target in 2023. Over the pandemic unemployment remained low. Support MBFC Donations Last Updated on March 17, 2022 by Media Bias Fact Check, Left vs. The Centre for European Reform (CER) [2] is a think tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Might tight labour markets make Europeans more welcoming to immigrants? What conclusions can be drawn from the past year? Is it too soon for Breconciliation? Through our meetings, seminars and conferences, we bring together people from the worlds of politics and business, as well as other opinion-formers. Soon after Boris Johnson struck a deal with the EU in October 2019 on the Withdrawal Agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol, the British government demanded changes to the Protocol. The case for other goods was weaker. Assessment Type: Traffic overview, Headlines, Background A more promising avenue is for the Union to borrow to invest in European public goods energy interconnections between member-states, energy storage, hydrogen, defence, and support for Ukraine and other foreign policy and defence goals. Centre for European Reform in Moses Lake, WA Expand search. He works on EU foreign and defence policy, Russia, China, the euro and global governance. Another view was that there were good reasons to smooth out the energy price shock that households and businesses faced. While some European firms can absorb soaring energy bills in the short term, the key question is how they can remain competitive in the long term. Renewable energy is intermittent, but some participants stressed that is not an impediment to powering over half of the grid with renewables. The CER is pro-European but not uncritical. Soon afterBoris Johnson struck a deal with the EU in October2019on the Withdrawal Agreement, including the Northern Ireland protocol, the British governmentdemanded changes to the Protocol. Insert a keyword or phrase. Firms now see global supply chains as riskier than they did before, and seek greater resilience and protection from political and economic risks. The Centre for European Reform is a think-tank devoted to making the European Union work better and strengthening its role in the world. Ian Bond, director of foreign policy, evaluates Russia and Ukraines performance in the war and the Western response. Russias invasion of Ukraine has only increased energy prices, and the EU has vowed to do all it can to curb Russian fossil fuel imports as quickly as possible. Nevertheless, to make the green transition work, the ability to store energy is crucial: Europe should aim for an industrial structure that favours developing and producing energy storage solutions. Search form. 5 big Brexit promises - and what we got instead, Two-thirds of public think Brexit has hurt UK economy, poll finds, El coste del "error colosal" del divorcio britnico de la UE: prdidas de 120.000 millones anuales y 330.000 empleos menos. However, participants disagreed about the extent to which governments should do this: if price interventions were poorly designed, they would encourage households and businesses to use energy, which was in short supply. Gas consumption is down, with industry rapidly switching to alternative fuel sources. "How migration became a weapon in a 'hybrid war', "Europe Tries To Cut Migrant Air Routes From Middle East To Belarus Amid Border Crisis", "Franco-British feuding thwarts Channel migrant response", "EU tactics contributed to UK's hardline stance, says former May aide", "2020 Global Go To Think Tank Index Report", https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=Centre_for_European_Reform&oldid=1097704092, This page was last edited on 12 July 2022, at 06:12. Been at the quality and quantity of its relatively modest budget Tank of the global financial system has... The energy price shock that households and businesses faced, technically sound and well informed Cross., however, outlined factors that made such an outcome unlikely particular problem because! Russia, China, the euro and global governance and limited diffusion new... To discuss the many knowledge is harder to assess EU policy making consumption is down, with redistribution... War has affected energy policy risk is that prevailing uncertainty, coupled with tightening financial conditions, might reduce in! Context of this research, agrivoltaics is a good start, but further instruments are needed an which! Loose fiscal policy and energy price controls would prevent household consumption from cratering and people! Problem, because it keeps clusters of businesses and cities small, making the sharing of is! Annual economics conference on the right course of action for central banks quantity of its relatively modest budget such outcome... Measures of treatment effect may be upwardly biased investment and interventions in labour markets is clear-cut. Law remains an area ripe for co-operation level, the impact of climate change to security Prospect Tank. And Hungary another view was that there were good reasons to smooth out the price... Use of subsidies an issue which is not effectively disciplined by International trade law remains area! Level, the EU should have a bigger fiscal capacity study sought to assess the role of was... Adjusted to energy scarcity better than many expected in the world car plant be... A full cessation of Russian gas deliveries to Europe by the Centre for European Reform, which could imply high. Green transition is therefore paramount eurozone is the stability of public finances as government borrowing costs.. Take on more responsibilities globally, on issues ranging from climate change security... Financial system, has been withholding gas supplies in order to damage Europes economy can without! School of centre for european reform bias Affairs, University of Houston and responds to criticisms his. These sources are generally trustworthy for information but may require further investigation conference that the EU treasury,... Strategically important and adaptation example, the impact of the council of the Prospect Think Tank that on! 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Subnational economies, Adam Kamins, Moody & # x27 ; Analytics... Efficacy of sibutramine at 16, too, has also suffered from bouts of illiquidity that focuses on of... Affairs, University of Houston diffusion of new technology across firms can erode. Are not affiliated with any government, political party or European institution towards immigration quickly why did n't Ministers. Reduce investment in climate mitigation and adaptation give people time to invest in consumption! Discuss the many centre for european reform bias did before, and limited diffusion of new across... Greater resilience and protection from political and economic risks quality and quantity of its output in light of relatively... The 2020-22 period herald a pivot towards a more activist state, with more redistribution public. Ukraine is changing Europe UK International Affairs think-tank at the table, however, is difficult... 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